In any conflict, controlling information is as important as controlling territory. The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has a stark information dimension: Iran’s internet has been reduced to approximately 1% of normal capacity, cutting the country’s 80 million people off from the outside world and from each other. President Donald Trump’s appeals to ordinary Iranians to rise up against their government are failing to reach their intended audience.
The military campaign producing this information blackout has been relentless. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been struck and possibly destroyed. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon covering over one million people and struck Hezbollah’s command structure across Beirut with sustained aerial bombardment. The defense secretary has confirmed that US firepower is about to surge significantly.
Trump’s psychological campaign against the Iranian government has run in parallel with the military one. He has demanded unconditional surrender. He has warned of “absolutely guaranteed death” for those who resist. He has offered immunity to Iranians who help overthrow their government. He has stated his desire to personally influence the selection of Iran’s next supreme leader. All of these messages have been broadcast extensively in media accessible to the outside world. Their penetration into Iran itself is, given the internet situation, minimal.
Iran’s government has used the information advantage effectively. State television has broadcast scenes of national mourning for the slain supreme leader alongside messages of fierce resistance. Large Friday prayer crowds in Tehran have been shown to the world as evidence of popular solidarity against foreign aggression. The airstrike on a girls’ school that killed more than 100 students has been highlighted as evidence of American brutality. Whether the population agrees with the government’s framing is impossible to assess from outside the country.
The information war will ultimately matter as much as the military one. If Iran’s population can be reached and inspired to act against the regime, Trump’s strategy might work. If the internet blackout holds and the government’s narrative prevails, the military campaign alone is unlikely to produce the internal collapse Trump is counting on. History suggests that populations under foreign bombardment tend to rally around their governments, not against them. Trump is betting that this time is different. The silence from inside Iran makes it very difficult to know.